Meriç Köyatası, Turkey’s renowned economist and writer, provides a sharp analysis of the country’s current political and social challenges. In this piece, he explores the rising voter indecision, institutional collapse, and the critical need for proactive political engagement to secure Turkey’s democratic future. Below is his original commentary in full, translated for our English-speaking audience.
A Strong Warning to Those Advocating Neutrality in Politics
ASAL Research Company recently published a survey asking, “If elections were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?” The undecided voters and those who declared they wouldn’t vote stood far ahead at 36.7%. The second-largest group was CHP (Republican People’s Party) with 20%, followed by AKP (Justice and Development Party) with 18.7%. I will share the detailed results of the survey at the end of this article. However, this election survey should be interpreted as a significant message for all Atatürk revolutionaries, patriots, and citizens who identify themselves across the political spectrum.
It is not enough to say, “CHP cannot handle this,” or to advocate for being above party politics or remaining apolitical. We must acknowledge that power changes only through elections.
Turkey is on the brink of a major transformation. Following Iraq and Syria, the next target in the Greater Middle East Project (GMEP) is Turkey. The proposed “carrot” for Turkey is the establishment of an autonomous Kurdistan region, merging similar regions in Iraq and Syria, with Turkey acting as the guarantor of this federation.
This proposal, which spells the end of the nation-state, will initially make Turkey seem like it’s growing through federation. However, in the next stage, significant parts of Turkey’s land and water resources will be taken away.
Since Turkey is a NATO member, they aim to implement this stage of the GMEP without war. The recent “opening process” illustrates this. With the collaboration of AKP, MHP, and DEM, and the Islamist MPs introduced to parliament by Kılıçdaroğlu, they have the means to amend the constitution without a referendum. If they fail, contingency plans, including civil war scenarios, are ready.
Among the 10 million refugees in Turkey, there are countless jihadist terrorists and over 400,000 Afghan-origin American soldiers, making it easy to create chaos at any moment. The society is already divided along ethnic and religious lines due to long-standing policies. People barely greet each other on the streets, and minor disputes in traffic often end in violence or murder.
We must recall the 2006 report by CIA’s Turkey station chief, Paul Henze, to the U.S. State Department:
“When we convince the government, the parliament blocks us. When we convince the parliament, the military opposes us. When we persuade the military, the judiciary intervenes. For America’s interests, Turkey needs to transition to a presidential and federal system to neutralize the powers of the parliament, military, and judiciary. Convincing one leader is easier. If we can’t convince him, we know how to render him ineffective, as we saw with Saddam.”
The plan is progressing, and for Turkey to escape this, the current government must first be removed. Under intense propaganda, the public might not grasp the existential threat facing the country.
But this is not the only issue. Turkey is in a state of institutional collapse. There is no rule of law. The economy serves only a privileged few, while 80% of the population loses income annually. The wealthiest 10% continue to prosper, and the next 10% are on the brink of falling below the poverty line. Approximately 50% of the population lives below the hunger threshold. Severe poverty persists. Pensioners, low-income workers, laborers, farmers, tradespeople, and students are acutely aware that their prosperity is being transferred to AKP allies and refugees. Health and education services exist only for those who can afford them.
No Opposition by the Oppressed Despite deep economic poverty, rampant corruption, and lawlessness, the CHP fails to persuade voters. It cannot effectively oppose or unite with its electorate. While people suffer under economic despair and fraudulent referendums reshape the regime, the CHP’s ineffective opposition and protests have been notable in their absence. As the late Süleyman Demirel said during his time in opposition, “They haven’t brought the sky crashing down on their heads.”
To date, the CHP has only protested injustices affecting itself. When the Supreme Election Council (YSK) invalidated votes and changed the regime, the party failed to march two kilometers to the YSK building to protest or organize sit-ins until the decision was reversed. Yet, weeks later, when MP Enis Berberoğlu was arrested, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu walked 400 kilometers from Ankara to Istanbul. Had he walked just two kilometers earlier, the regime might have been saved. When Esenyurt and Beşiktaş mayors were arrested, they gathered to protest. However, they sent youth and unions to face police brutality in Taksim Square on May 1st, revealing their ineffectiveness as an opposition.
This is why undecided voters have risen to 36%, while CHP’s votes remain at 20%. Although many undecided voters ultimately cast their votes for the CHP during elections, the party fails to inspire hope for change.
This survey clearly shows that intellectuals, scientists, retired politicians who once served the country, and experts in defense, foreign policy, and geopolitics must step forward into politics.
Conclusion Turkey’s future depends on proactive, united efforts from its citizens. Neutrality is no longer an option.
If Elections Were Held This Sunday: According to the ASAL survey conducted in January with 1,800 participants across 26 provinces:
- Undecided / Would Not Vote: 36.7%
- CHP: 20.2%
- AKP: 18.7%
- DEM: 6.1%
- MHP: 5.6%
- İYİP: 2.8%
- New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah): 2.5%
- TIP: 1%
- Others: 4.1%
Meric Koyatasi
