As the dust settles on the dramatic downfall of Syria’s long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad, the country’s political future is beginning to tentatively take shape.
The leader of Syria’s largest insurgent group, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) called on fighters of all factions to return to their bases and lay down their arms, as Syria prepares to enter its next chapter.
“Tomorrow morning when institutions start to conduct their business of services, security and policemen, I hope from everyone who carries a weapon to go to his base and to commit to his division, battalion or brigade. We will not accept or allow the (chaos of) arms appearing or firing on the streets at all.” said Abu Mohammed al-Golani (whose real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa), leader of the HTS.
Al-Golani, whose group led other opposition groups in the 12-day offensive aimed at dethroning Assad, appointed Syria’s former Prime Minister, Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali to oversee state institutions and ensure the continuity of social services until they are handed over.
Al-Jalali who served as prime minister under Assad’s leadership from mid-September of this year, was captured and escorted out of his office on Sunday surrounded by a group of armed men. He’s since stated that he’s ready to hand over power and cooperate with the rebels.
It’s unclear how long Al-Jalali’s caretaker capacity will last, but in interviews given to Arabic media, he said he’s in contact with the HTS leader to discuss managing the transitional period. He also stated that he received assurances that no Syrian will be harmed by the rebel groups or discriminated against on grounds of religious or cultural beliefs and called for free and fair elections that give the power back to the people.
“I won’t leave, and I don’t intend to leave. I expect in a peaceful manner to guarantee the continuity of the public authorities, institutions and the safety and security for all citizens,” said Al Jalali in a video statement.
There are reports an agreement to transfer power to an interim government could be reached as early as Monday 9 December.
13-hour curfew imposed in Damascus on first day of post-Assad rule
Syrian rebels declared a 13-hour curfew in Damascus on the very first day after what the country hailed as a momentous achievement in overthrowing the Assad government.
The curfew will begin from 4 pm local time until 5 am (2 pm – 3 am CET) on Monday 9 December as the Syrian rebels look to consolidate their control over the city and its main institutions.
Damascenes complied with the curfew call, with the capital being pictured completely deserted, no one on the streets and shops and businesses closed.
A complete 180 from just the night before where Syrians flooded the streets until the early hours of the morning.
Israel moves in on Syria buffer zone
The Israeli military said on Sunday that it sent troops to “other places necessary for its defence.” Israeli troops were sent to a buffer zone at the Golan heights to “provide security for residents,” of the Israeli-controlled portions.
Some hours later, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he ordered his troops to seize the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, established by a 1974 ceasefire agreement with Syria.
He spoke on Sunday after a lightning rebel advance ended Assad’s rule.
Netanyahu said the decades-old agreement had collapsed and the situation necessitated Israeli takeover after Syrian troops had abandoned their positions.
The Arab League on Sunday condemned Israel for taking advantage of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s downfall by moving into more Syrian territory.
In a statement, they said Israel illegally sought to occupy more territories.
Israel captured the Golan Heights in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it. The international community views it as occupied Syrian territory.
The United States however does not, as former US President Donald Trump recognised the Golan Heights in its entirety as Israeli territory during a visit by prime minister Netanyahu to Washington on 25 March 2019.
Netanyahu also reportedly ordered the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) to carry out air strikes on multiple locations across Syria, including the capital, according to Israeli media.
The strikes targeted ammunitions and weapons depots at the Khalkhalah airbase in Suwayda, several positions in the Daraa Governorate and the Mezzeh military airport, about 6 kilometres southwest of Damascus city centre.
The United Kingdom-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused Israel of perpetrating the attacks, though the Israeli army has not yet publicly commented on the matter.
12-days was all it took to bring an end to Assad’s 24-year reign
The Syrian government collapsed early on Sunday, marking an end to the Assad family’s 50-year rule, after a surprise rebel offensive quickly swept through government-held areas and recaptured the capital in just 12-days.
A coalition of rebel groups, led by the HTS, launched a surprise offensive on 27 November, seizing large parts of Aleppo; Syria’s largest city, which they had previously ceded to Assad forces back in 2016.
For years, the rebels couldn’t make significant advances, as Assad’s forces had the military backing of Russia, Iran and their regional proxies.
In 2018, for the first time since the loss of Aleppo, they were able to move in and capture areas on the outskirts of the capital Damascus.
The rebel coalition launched their offensive with one plan in mind, overthrowing Bashar al-Assad. HTS fighters along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army, moved in on Aleppo in a two-pronged attack, capturing large parts of it on the first day. They were met by resistance from Assad’s forces and reportedly Russia’s Air Force, but it wasn’t enough to deter them or change Aleppo’s fate.
The insurgent groups later set their eyes on the central city of Hama, which they gained control of in a few days before advancing to their next target, Homs.
On Saturday, the HTS-led coalition made quick work in the city of Homs, and by the end of the day, claimed control of the city, before pushing into the outskirts of the capital in the early hours of Sunday.
Assad’s forces started quickly retreated and abandoned their posts in the capital as rebel fighters knocked the doors of Damascus. Before long, reports of President Assad fleeing the capital circulated, until the news was confirmed by Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali in an exclusive interview with Al Arabiya, who said he lost contact with Bashar al-Assad since Saturday evening.
The rebels quickly occupied multiple key institutions in Damascus before eventually seizing control of the main state radio and television service. It was there where they announced to the Syrian people, the end of Assad’s “rule of terror.”
Assad’s whereabouts remained unclear with the latest information coming from his aides, and high-ranking personnel within his government stating the former president boarded a plane from Damascus shortly before rebels infiltrated the capital and headed to an unknown destination.
On Sunday morning, Russian state media announced that Bashar al-Assad and his family arrived in Moscow, where they were granted asylum.
Why the timing of the rebel offensive was crucial to their success?
Assad had little, if any, help from his allies. For years, Russia and Iran served as the main financial and military support to Assad’s forces. They were crucial in the battle for Aleppo, which brought the city under his control in 2016 after years of fighting with various militia groups.
Things were different this time though, as his two closest supporters, were significantly weakened, both militarily and financially.
Russia has been occupied with its war on Ukraine after Moscow launched an invasion of its neighbour in February 2022. What the Kremlin thought would be a quick and decisive victory, predicting to take control of the capital Kyiv in just 3-days, was anything but. Ukraine was backed by a plethora of European and western powers, who’ve been supporting their fight for freedom, providing them with weapons and resources since the beginning.
The war on Ukraine amounted to a great humiliation for Russia, who suffered serious economic consequences after western countries imposed crippling sanctions on them. This in turn meant the Kremlin had limited resources significantly reducing their ability to fund their proxies or support them militarily like they did in the past.
Iran has also been preoccupied for the better part of a year. On 7 October 2023, Hamas; an Iran backed militant group in Gaza, staged an attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 people. Israel responded with a war very much ongoing, aimed at destroying Hamas. The war quickly spread to Lebanon, when Hezbollah; another Iran proxy based in Lebanon, joined in and launched attacks on Israel.
Israel has significantly reduced both Hamas’ and Hezbollah’s resources and infrastructure, prompting Iran’s continuous need to replenish both groups with more funds and weapons, draining their own resources.
This also meant that Assad’s forces were no longer a priority, essentially isolating him and leaving him in a position to face the incoming rebellion on his own, with the limited resources he had at his disposal.
Syria’s civil war in numbers
The United Nations say Syria’s civil war, stemming from a revolution to topple Assad back in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring anti-government protest movement that swept across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s, has done indescribable damage to the country, here’s a snapshot of the misery it caused:
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More than 14 million displaced, the world’s largest refugee crisis.
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Approximately 5.5 million Syrian refugees live in the five countries neighbouring Syria; Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt.
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Germany is the largest non-neighbouring host country with more than 850,000 Syrian refugees.
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More than 7.2 million Syrians internally displaced.
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90% of the population live below the poverty line
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70% of the population in need of humanitarian assistance.
