US President Joe Biden will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Berlin this week as his presidency draws to an end.
His visit, initially scheduled for last week, included a meeting at Germany’s Ramstein air base, where he was set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders. After Biden’s visit was cancelled, Zelenskyy made stops in London, Rome, Berlin, and Paris to present his “victory plan” to European leaders.
With Biden preparing to hand over the reins to either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, European governments have been making plans for both scenarios. Either way, Europe will need to reduce its dependence on the US.
Euronews spoke with transatlantic expert and German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) senior fellow Rachel Tausendfreund about US-EU relations amid ongoing discussions about Ukraine’s potential NATO membership.
Europe needs to procure more weapons and ammo and coordinate, she says.
“Separately, they’re all buying a decent amount of things or producing a decent amount of material,” Tausendfreund said, adding that because NATO member states are working alone, the capacity is “much lower than it should be”.
France supports producing fighter jets and munitions as a European initiative, but there are other countries, such as Germany, who say that weapons should be bought from wherever it is cheapest and most efficient, including from Israel, causing tension between states.
What would it mean for NATO if Trump wins?
“There are two scenarios. The optimistic kind of French scenario is that finally everyone will agree with France that Europe can’t rely on the US forever and therefore need to establish strategic autonomy. And that would also mean less reliance on US systems because you need also political support sometimes to use some of these weapon systems,” Tausendfreund explained.
She says that is an optimistic scenario that is unlikely to happen because countries on the eastern flank of Europe, who feel vulnerable due to their proximity to Russia, lean on their relationship with the US and focus on their own defences, which can lead to continued fragmentation within Europe for NATO member states.
Regarding Ukraine’s future, Tausendfreund suggested that if Trump were to win the election in less than three weeks, support for Ukraine would likely decrease.
She believes Trump will push Ukraine into negotiations almost immediately, using military support as leverage to pressure Kyiv into talks.
“By early January, they’ll be forced to negotiate, regardless of the situation,” she said, underlining that it will probably be important to Trump to get some kind of deal so that he can sell it as a win.
The best-case scenario for NATO under a Trump presidency would be a strong EU response and coordination with the UK, leading to a Europeanisation of NATO that keeps the alliance robust.
NATO states would need to achieve this by increasing capacity and filling in gaps that could be left if the US withdraws support.
“A positive scenario is you have really a Europeanised NATO where the Europeans are providing 60% of the defence and deterrence capability,” Tausendfreund said.
However, if NATO states and the EU don’t ramp up their defence capabilities, they could become very weak by 2025.
And what about the consequences for NATO if Harris wins?
“I think we’re looking at one maybe two years of solid support, but with an eye to finding an exit strategy,” Tausendfreund says.
A presidency under Kamala Harris could encourage the EU to coordinate to strengthen the European pillar. If Europe continues along this path of not being united in making decisions, the effects will be negative and can lead to weakened European security by 2027 or 2028.
“The US simply doesn’t have the capacity to stay focused on Europe to the extent that it has,” she said.
On the topic of Ukraine, Tausendfreund said “if Harris wins, you can expect the same level of support rhetorically as we’ve had in the Biden administration.”
“And I actually think another big spending package would be possible, even if the Republicans have control of the Senate, because a significant number of Republicans, maybe not quite a majority, but close, actually support aiding Ukraine, as long as the political pressure is not that high.”
The future of NATO and Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’
Either way, the pressure to arm NATO is unlikely to diminish, regardless of who is elected. Without better cooperation between member states, Russia could feel emboldened and “make trouble on the continent,” the expert says.
“Ukraine will need pretty strong security guarantees from the NATO’s partners, be it in the form of membership or just in the form of bilateral security guarantees. Well, for that to work, these allies have to be credible security givers and they’re the Europeans that have a lot of work to do,” Tausendfreund adds.
“It’s an ambitious plan. It’s clearly just putting on paper what he thinks they would need in order to win. I’m not sure that it’s very realistic he’s going to get it. He’s not going to get it from Biden. I don’t think that’s going to happen,” Tausendfreund says. But under a Harris administration, there could be more support.
Security experts are urging Europe to take a more united approach in producing weapons, and say they need to accelerate making tough decisions for the future of NATO.
