With the US election hanging in the balance, European leaders are psychologically preparing for another Donald Trump presidency — an event that would have major implications not just for trade and diplomacy, but for the collective security architecture that has kept much of Europe relatively peaceful since the end of World War II.
For now, Trump’s campaign has focused mainly on his domestic agenda, but his term in office carries lessons about how he will approach his country’s dealings with Europe.
He has also made clear whom he sees as his allies there: a constellation of right-wing heads of government and opposition figures, many of whom share his disdain for international institutions, multiculturalism, progressive social policy and free trade.
At the same time, political developments in various countries and regions, not least Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, mean that a new Trump administration would have new relationships to build and new problems to manage — or indeed wash its hands of.
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán
Trump and his circle have long been particularly impressed with Hungarian autocrat Viktor Orbán, who has enthusiastically promoted his version of “illiberal democracy” despite repeated clashes with the EU over the rule of law in his country.
Orbán is particularly notorious for indulging in conspiracy theories about alleged “globalist” meddling in domestic affairs, which he has used as a pretext for curtailing media and academic freedoms to a degree that puts him well outside the EU mainstream.
Many on the American right have explicitly celebrated Orbán’s leadership as a model for “saving” the US. These same legislators and commentators are also often criticised for their openness to the Kremlin’s point of view on Ukraine — such as that NATO and the West have no business opposing the full-scale Russian invasion of the country that began in early 2022.
Hungary may not be the largest European country, but it can exercise veto power in various EU institutions and in NATO, where Orbán joined with Turkey in holding up Sweden’s accession for several months.
Hungary also holds the rotating EU presidency until the end of this year, and Orbán has already used it to stir up arguments with the Commission and Parliament. He particularly infuriated mainstream leaders in Brussels by meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in person this summer, and has exuberantly continued to pursue an idiosyncratic foreign policy that puts him at odds with many European capitals.
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Orbán is, however, something of an outlier as far as EU leaders are concerned. There is no other long-established government to his right, and in Poland, one of the most important governments on his part of the ideological spectrum was voted out almost a year ago.
One place trending his way is Slovakia, where right-wing Prime Minister Robert Fico swept back to power in 2023. Fico, who like Trump recently survived an assassination attempt, has an anti-LGBTQ+ and anti-immigration tilt, and like Orbán has been cracking down on his country’s free media. He is also far warmer towards Putin than most European leaders.
Italy: Georgia Meloni
One of the more mainstream potential allies for Trump is Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy.
Currently the most right-wing leader in the G7 — with the possible exception of Japanese PM Fumio Kishida — she has worked hard to cultivate relationships with the international right.
But she has also successfully avoided acquiring an Orbán-style stigma among the EU’s centrists despite her culturally conservative and nationalistic views, and despite the fact that her coalition government includes the aggressively anti-immigration Lega party.
Should Trump be re-elected, Meloni will have a natural ideological ally in power across the Atlantic. And should she prove as adept at building a relationship with his administration as she has with other governments, she could prove to be something of a bridge between a new Trump administration and an EU whose priorities could be seriously frustrated by his likely agenda.
Europe’s radical right
Where Trump will find his most devoted European supporters, however, is among the hardline and extreme right, most of whom are either in opposition or influencing public opinion from outside elected politics.
Several well-known parties like Spain’s Vox, France’s National Rally, Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Reform UK have so far failed to make it into national government but have made major advances in the last decade, growing their numbers in national parliaments and in AfD’s case, winning the largest share of the vote in a recent regional election.
Like Trump, these parties tend to oppose mass immigration, particularly from poorer and predominantly Muslim countries. They often share a scepticism toward NATO, the EU and other international institutions, and they generally appeal to socially conservative voters with a traditional sense of national identity while also emphasising how “the system” — global or national — has left “their” voters behind.
More than that, some of their leaders have directly associated themselves with Trump and his US allies. This is especially true of Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who won a seat in parliament for the first time this year. He has appeared at numerous Trump events and given many interviews to right-wing US outlets.
However, predictions that this political tendency could gain hegemony in European politics have so far proven wide of the mark. Farage’s party only has a handful of MPs and no sway over the current government, while the National Rally fell short of their own expectations in this summer’s French election.
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And even though the AfD is polling ahead of the parties in Germany’s ruling coalition, it is also under the scrutiny of the security services because of its alleged links with far-right extremism.
At the EU level, the parliamentary elections held in June this year did not see the across-the-board populist and far-right surge many observers had expected, paving the way for the centre-right and internationalist Ursula von der Leyen to secure another term as president of the commission.
This means that if re-elected, Trump will be dealing with a Europe whose major leaders are, for the most part, not amenable to his norm-defying, sovereignty-first political style.
Instead, the EU and most other European countries are likely to continue down a pro-Ukraine multilateralist road — and if anything, the implications of a second Trump presidency for the US’ international presence are an incentive for the centre to hold.
