England and the Netherlands take it to the Westfalenstadion pitch of Dortmund at 21.00 on Wednesday in the last Euro 2024 semifinal, aiming to play Spain in the Berlin final act.
The Three Lions were in the last Euro final, three years ago, but lost to Italy after a shootout on Wembley home soil. If they beat the Dutch, they have another chance to end a 58-year trophy drought, and to win their very first European championship.
The Netherlands already lifted a Euro cup in 1988 but then failed to win more trophies. The closest they got was in the 2010 World Cup final against Spain, which they lost.
Few precedents in history, perfect balance in major tournaments
There were only three previous clashes in major tournaments, with one draw and one victory each. The last one dates back to Euro 96. England were the hosts and routed the Netherlands 4-1 in the group stage.
Netherlands’ only victory was at Euro 88 – hosted by Germany – with a 3-1 win that set the Dutch on course for reaching the final and lifting the trophy.
Taking into account all games – friendlies and Nations League included – England have a far worse record, as they managed to beat the Netherlands only once in the nine previous face-offs, in a 2018 friendly.
Algorithms and odds put even more pressure on England’s highest-valued team
England is the most expensive squad of the tournament, according to Transfermrkt, totalling €1.52bn euro in players’ worth. The Netherlands ranks 6th at €854m, though the estimation also includes Frankie De Jong who’s been injured for the whole tournament.
According to the OptaAnalys algorithm, England stand a 51.51% chance of progressing through to the final.
As per ninety minutes’ result, Google foresees a 36% victory chance for England over the Netherlands’ 30%, with a 34% possibility of a draw.
The odds reflect the margin between the teams. England are slightly ahead – generally at 17/10 – while the Netherlands’ odds are generally 21/10 for a victory in the ninety minutes.
Despite England looking like having an edge, the game could turn out unpredictable as Southgate’s team hasn’t yet faced a FIFA Top 10 team in the whole tournament.
Furthermore, they struggled against almost all their opponents at Euro 2024, particularly in the knockout phase, with serious troubles at shooting on target.
Netherlands grows in form, England yet to perform
England limped through to the semis after four consecutive draws in the 90 minutes.
In the round of 16, they narrowly avoided elimination with Slovakia with a late 95th-minute equaliser and then resorted to a penalty shootout to beat Switzerland in the quarter-finals. Earlier on in the group stage, their manager Gareth Southgate was thrown empty beer cups after a draw with Slovenia.
England’s Harry Kane said the “expectation weighed quite heavily” on the team at the beginning of the tournament.
“And of course, the external noise was louder than it’s ever been so I felt we couldn’t quite get ourselves in the right place. In the end, what was impressive was that the players ground it out, they ground results out and found ways to win.”
There’s scrutiny of Harry Kane’s fitness after the England captain went off with cramps in extra time against Switzerland. Ivan Toney came off the bench and scored one of England’s five successful penalties in the shootout.
The Netherlands got off to a clunky start with a third place in the group behind Austria and France but then lifted themselves up with two convincing victories against Romania and Turkey in the knockouts, the latter achieved with a stunning six-minute comeback.
Dutch manager Ronald Koeman shrugged criticism off: “We often hear things via the media, but we don’t necessarily hear what the country thinks. It could be more positive and more respectful when talking about the coach or about players. I think it’s a worldwide problem.”
Koeman brings back painful memories to the opponent. In 1993, the then-Dutch player scored a goal against England which excluded them from the 1994 World Cup.
The Dutch are pinning their hopes on Liverpool’s Codi Gapko. The 25-year-old forward is the joint Euro 2024 top scorer with three goals, one of which netted in the previous game against Turkey.
Ronald Koeman could keep his lineup unchanged for the third game in a row, with Memphis Depay and Steven Bergwijn up front starting alongside Gakpo.
On Tuesday, the Dutch endured some travel disruption on the way to Dortmund when their scheduled train journey from Wolfsburg was cancelled because of what the team said was a “blockage” on the line. The squad had to fly instead.
